Photo Courtesy: India Today Group
Shillong: Mawsynram and Cherrapunji sit among the wettest places on Earth. Now, they face a growing threat of drought. A new study in Theoretical and Applied Climatology analyzed climate data from 1981 to 2100. It shows that climate change brings intense rainfall spikes, fewer rainy days, and higher temperatures to Meghalaya.
Researchers Ashesh Rudra Paul and Pankaj Kumar Roy found the Simple Daily Intensity Index rose by up to 0.08 mm per day annually. Meanwhile, rainy days dropped by an average of 0.40 days each year. Steep terrain and shallow soils prevent water absorption. Instead, heavy rain creates runoff, killing groundwater recharge. Minimum temperatures are also climbing by 0.08 degrees Celsius per year, fueling evapotranspiration. Water vanishes from soil and plants faster.
The study used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index to track drought. It warns that extreme and severe drought events will likely increase under high-emission scenarios. Projections show mean annual streamflow dropping by nearly 10 percent in the Sari-Gowain basin and 11.6 percent in the Surma-Meghna basin. River flows peak in June and July, leaving little water for the rest of the year.
Locals feel the sting. Waterbodies and falls are shrinking early. P Hujon, a guest house operator in Mawkisyiem, noted the changing landscape firsthand. “Many waterfalls in Sohra area are getting dried, and I am seeing this as early as mid September.”
The researchers noted their data ignores human factors like deforestation and urban growth. They urged scientists and leaders to cooperate on better water management. Effective strategies must address temperature spikes and shifting rain patterns to secure the region's future.
Updated at 22nd September 2026 at 10:02am
Researchers pinpointed the threat level by testing a high-emissions climate scenario known as SSP585. This model, which tracks a future driven by heavy fossil fuel use, confirms the highest probability for extreme and severe droughts in the region. The study explicitly links the changing weather to the paradox where extreme rainfall fails to alleviate water scarcity.
Hydrological modeling for the Sari-Gowain and Surma-Meghna basins also confirms that these rivers will likely see their annual mean flow hit harder than previously understood. Experts warn that the reliance on monsoon-heavy peaks in June and July sets the stage for severe hydrological drought for the remainder of the year. The researchers state that this shift demands new water management tactics that track intensity, distribution, and basin-level flow rather than just relying on aggregate rainfall totals.
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